Friday, September 17, 2010

Bollywood Movies And Their Hype Cycle

I read about Gartner's famous Hype-cycle and am a follower of the same. It puts technologies in different places of a curve that they name as hype curve. In my thoughts this is applicable to a lot of other areas, may be in a variant of the graph Gartner proposed.

I tried to fit the Bollywood movies in a hype cycle. Unlike the last part of Gartner's cycle, where the productivity plateaus, the last part for movies remain flat. So, let's see what's the curve for movies released in last couple of months.

The full report is placed at here.

Diging into details of the report, "Dabangg" was particularly a big hit in Punjab, where "Aisha" did really well in Bengal. But one thing is evident, all the movies follow a certain hype cycle. "Dabangg" is now at it's peak, "khatta meetha" and "aisha" are in the flat trajectory. Any prospects of "We are family" had a premature death, perhaps due to massive popularity of "Dabangg".

What happens if I extend the range beyond the movies produced in last couple of months? I took a few films deemed successful in last decade and ran the same experiments. Here's what I get (link to the report) -

Three Idiots was far more successful in India than the others. But if you move back to the whole world (link to the report), the best performing movie is "Slumdog Millionaire" (see blue line below).



There were multiple reports that "Slumdog Millionaire" was not so popular in India. It was correct, proved by the data from Google.

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